Key Takeaways
- Market News: August brought a mix of economic signals, shaping market expectations and Federal Reserve policy outlook. Inflation continued its downward trend, with the Consumer Price Index falling below 3% for the first time since March 2021. This development, coupled with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (PCE) holding steady at 2.5%, strengthened the case for potential interest rate cuts.
- Large Caps: The S&P 500 was up +2.4% in August as Q2 earnings surpassed analysts’ forecasts. However, the Magnificent 7 experienced its second consecutive month of negative returns. This unexpected downturn might underscore the growing disparity between soaring expectations and actual market dynamics. The S&P 493 rose over +3% as investors rotated into other sectors such as Health Care and Utilities.
- Small Caps: The labor market showed signs of cooling, only adding 114k and 142k jobs for July and August, which were both below expectations. This softening in employment data sparked concerns about an economic slowdown and yields drifted lower throughout the month as more rate cuts were priced into markets. Small Caps, which exploded in July, came back down to Earth in reaction to the weak economic data.
- Interest Rates: As a result of the shift in the yield curve, bonds have been hot for the past few months. US Aggregate Bonds were up +6.6% since the end of April and other interest rate sensitive sectors such as REITs and Infrastructure were up +21.8% and +13.3% over the same period.
You cannot invest directly in an index; therefore, performance returns do not reflect any management fees. Returns of the indices include the reinvestment of all dividends and income, as reported by the commercial databases involved. Returns over one year have been annualized.
Source — Bloomberg, Morningstar, treasury.gov. S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Disclosures
Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Performance. Any opinions expressed are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice. This report may include estimates, projections or other forward looking statements, however, due to numerous factors, actual events may differ substantially from those presented. The graphs and tables making up this report have been based on unaudited, third-party data and performance information provided to us by one or more commercial databases. Additionally, please be aware that past performance is not a guide to the future performance of any manager or strategy, and that the performance results and historical information provided displayed herein may have been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. Therefore, it should not be inferred that these results are indicative of the future performance of any strategy, index, fund, manager or group of managers. While we believe this information to be reliable, Pathstone bears no responsibility whatsoever for any errors or omissions. Index benchmarks contained in this report are provided so that performance can be compared with the performance of well-known and widely recognized indices. Index results assume the re-investment of all dividends and interest. Moreover, the information provided is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security, investment, or portfolio allocation. Any investment advice provided by Pathstone is client specific based on each clients’ risk tolerance and investment objectives. This presentation is not meant as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s accounts should or would be handled, as appropriate investment decisions depend upon the client’s specific investment objectives.
U.S. Large Cap Equity is represented by the S&P 500 Index, with dividends reinvested. U.S. Small Cap Equity is represented by the Russell 2000 Index. Developed Non-U.S. Equity is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Emerging Market Equity is represented by the MSCI EM Index. Real Estate is represented by the S&P Global Property Index. Commodities are represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Natural Resource Equities are represented by the S&P North American Natural Resources Index. U.S. High Yield Debt is represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index. Emerging Market Debt is represented by the JPM GMI-EM Global Diversified Index. U.S. Aggregate Bonds is represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. U.S. Treasuries is represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Index. U.S. Municipal Bonds is represented by the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal 1-10yr Index.
